交易所年报问询能提升上市公司盈余质量吗？——基于深交所数据的实证分析

在上市公司公告年报后,交易所会组织专业人员对年报进行审核,并针对可能的疑问向上市公司发放年报问询函,要求公司回复并公开披露。基于这一制度背景,以深交所A股上市公司为研究对象,针对2014年至2017年间年报被问询的上市公司进行研究,发现在控制其他因素后,当年度年报被交易所问询的公司,其盈余管理程度更高、盈余质量更差,表明交易所在年报审核中是有的放矢的,关注到此类盈余质量更差的公司;同时发现,国有控股公司被问询的可能性低于非国有控股公司,表明交易所在年报问询中可能存在偏倚现象;进一步检验发现在年报被问询后,公司次年的盈余管理程度依然较高,盈余质量并未得到改善,年报问询这一非处罚性监管措施在改善盈余质量方面的监管效果有限。     

Multivariate volatility forecasts for stock market indices

Volatility forecasts aim to measure future risk and they are key inputs for financial analysis. In this study, we forecast the realized variance as an observable measure of volatility for several major international stock market indices and accounted for the different predictive information present in jump, continuous, and option-implied variance components. We allowed for volatility spillovers in different stock markets by using a multivariate modeling approach. We used heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR)-type models to obtain the forecasts. Based an out-of-sample forecast study, we show that: (i) including option-implied variances in the HAR model substantially improves the forecast accuracy, (ii) lasso-based lag selection methods do not outperform the parsimonious day-week-month lag structure of the HAR model, and (iii) cross-market spillover effects embedded in the multivariate HAR model have long-term forecasting power.     

How does news sentiment affect the states of Japanese stock return volatility?

This paper examines the impact of public news sentiment on the volatility states of firm-level returns on the Japanese Stock market. We firstly adopt a novel Markov Regime Switching Long Memory GARCH (MRS-LMGARCH), which is employed to estimate the latent volatility states of intraday stock return. By using the RavenPack Dow Jones News Analytics database, we fit discrete choice models to investigate the impact of news sentiment on changes of volatility states of the constituent stocks in the TOPIX Core 30 Index. Our findings suggest that news occurrence and sentiment, especially those of macro-economic news, are a key factor that significantly drives the volatility state of Japanese stock returns. This provides essential information for traders of the Japanese stock market to optimize their trading strategies and risk management plans to combat volatility.     

基于价值分级的级差式石油资源税制研究

本文对我国石油业缴纳资源税的现状进行了分析，指出了实施级差式资源税的必要性，在此基础上，介绍了石油资源价值分级的理论、方法和数学模型。最后．以石油资源价值分级结果为依据．对我国实施级差式资源税的具体操作方法作了说明。     

Do stock market returns predict changes to output? Evidence from a nonlinear panel data model

Recent empirical work suggests a predictive relationship between stock returns and output growth. We employ quarterly data from a panel of 27 countries to test whether stock returns as useful in predicting growth. Unlike previous research, our approach allows for the possible non-linear effect of recessions on the growth-return relationship. There is strong evidence to suggest that a linear model would be misspecified and provide potentially misleading inference. Using a switching regression approach, we find evidence that returns are most useful in predicting growth when the economy is in recession.First version received: November 2002/Final version received: April 2003This paper benefited greatly from discussions with Kalvinder Shields, Mark Harris, Pete Summers, and Vance Martin. Two anonymous referees provided useful comments on an earlier version of the paper for which we are grateful. The usual disclaimer applies to any errors and omissions. Funding from The University of Melbourne greatly assisted in the completion of this paper.     

股票市场的货币政策传导分析

货币政策的传导机制不是唯一的，金融市场的种种特征造成了货币政策传导的多样性，股票市场中的货币政策传导就具有独特的规律，在不与银行信贷的创造机制相连的前提下，信贷资金和股市资金的沟通是合理的，目前中国信贷市场和股票市场之间千丝万缕的关系，并没有为货币政策传导创造更加有效的机制基础，股票市场还不能成为货币政策的有效传导渠道。     

浙江省科技型中小企业的产业发展特征与股权激励模式的选择

主要根据浙江省科技民营企业的产业发展特征，对实施企业股权激励机制的模式选择问题进行深入研究与探讨。首先，分析论述了企业产业发展特征对企业激励模式选择的影响；在此基础上，对浙江省科技民营企业实施股权激励机制几个理论问题进行分析与探讨。     

我国股市全流通态势下积极型组合战略研究--积极/消极型组合战略选择的方法与思路

我国股票市场在全流通态势下,投资组合管理战略思想要着眼于长期投资战略目标,采用合适的方法来规划投资组合管理的全过程.实施积极型投资组合战略,主要取决于权益组合管理的战略思想.     

全面认识中小企业板市场

开设中小企业板市场是中国证券市场发展进程中的一个重要事件，是落实国家加快发展资本市场的重大举措。目前设立中小企业板市场无论在理论上还是在现实条件上都具备良好的基础。     

股权结构与公司绩效实证研究的发现及其评价

对中国国有企业改革的研究,主要有“委托—代理”“、法定产权与事实产权不一致”“、产业定位与产权特性相对称”等三个理论框架。对股权结构与公司绩效的实证研究,为这三个理论框架的逻辑分析提供了有力的经验证据,也为深化国有企业改革提供了明确的、有益的指导。